Heat Stress
Bangladesh has recently seen a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. During the 2024 heatwave, prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures and water shortages resulted in a range of devastating consequences, including heightened health risks like heatstroke, agricultural losses, and societal disruptions like school closures and water shortages. Without serious mitigation measures, Bangladesh could face an increasing risk of these extremes in the coming decades.
The Eltahir Group at MIT uses the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) to assess the impacts of near-term climate change at local and regional scales throughout South West Bangladesh. The group mainly focuses on producing projections about possible changes in frequency and intensity of heatwaves and droughts for the near-term period of 2026-2050, comparing outcomes in low and high-emissions scenarios. These products inform JO-CREWSnet’s projects related to agricultural adaptation, climate resilient housing, and water security. Learn more about this work in the recently published TIME Magazine article, How South Asia Can Adapt to Extreme Heat.
Comparison of Historical Maximum wet-bulb temperature (left) to SSP5-8.5 scenario (right)
The interactive visualization above shows temperature extremes (dry-bulb temperature) over Bangladesh derived from three CMIP6 global climate models (EC-Earth3, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, and UKESM1-0-LL) dynamically downscaled using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). The spatial distribution shows the highest value of daily maximum temperature identified within each 30-year period across Bangladesh. For each location, an associated time series displays the evolution of annual maxima under historical conditions and SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Shaded envelopes represent ensemble spread, while solid lines denote the ensemble mean. Together, the spatial and temporal perspectives reveal a robust intensification of extreme heat toward mid-century, particularly under higher-emission pathways.
Wet Bulb Temperature Projections
Wet bulb temperature is a measure of how hot and humid the air feels to the human body. Unlike the traditional dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature takes into account both the temperature and humidity. When the wet-bulb temperature is high, the human body struggles to cool itself through sweating. This can lead to heatstroke and other severe health issues.
Related Report:
Seminar Proceedings: Heatwave in Bangladesh
EXPLORING COMMUNITY PERCEPTIONS OF HEATWAVE SHELTERS: A SHORT STUDY FROM SOUTHWEST BANGLADESH