Objective/Mission
Our objective/mission is to develop evidence-based, scalable adaptation solutions to the three most pressing climate-change-induced problems in coastal Bangladesh—drinking water scarcity, low agricultural productivity, and heat stress and cyclone damages—under the Jameel Observatory CREWSnet initiative. In year 3, our key focus area was the Water Security Flagship Initiative.

Approach in Year 3
In year 3, we worked on the development and evaluation of the water-entrepreneurship program as part of the broader Water Security Flagship Initiative. The water-entrepreneurship program involves identifying potential entrepreneurs, providing training, technical consultations, and credit to jumpstart RO-based, small-scale water businesses. As part of our evaluation, in year 3 we focused on conducting implementation piloting and developing the sampling frame for the study. The data collected as part of these exercises have also contributed to estimating the water-security model.
Progress in Year 3
J-PAL, in partnership with Y-RISE, has made significant progress on the water-security entrepreneurship program evaluation while contributing to the broader water-security flagship program. We mapped the community boundaries of all 13 administrative unions in our study sample and the available drinking-water sources in these communities. We then conducted Key Informant Interviews (KII) with owners/operators of the drinking-water sources to collect a range of information: season-wise capacity of the water source, water prices, operation hours, management, maintenance, and water-delivery/collection mechanism from the source. Water salinity was also recorded using a salinometer at each water source. We constructed a WPI utilizing this data and prepared a report with water-scarcity heat maps for all the 13 unions in our study sample. Figure 17 shows the water-scarcity heat map for Kulla union. Furthermore, we conducted descriptive analysis to identify factors—such as remoteness, access to microfinance institutions, income distribution approximated by nightlights, etc.—that explain the current spatial patterns in water scarcity. In combination, these exercises have helped us to develop our sampling frame for the water entrepreneurship Randomized Control Trial (RCT), to estimate the water-security model, and to deepen our understanding of the complexities of the problem.
In collaboration with BRAC Climate Change Programme, we have conducted implementation piloting of the water-entrepreneurship program across 10 water-scarce communities of coastal Bangladesh. The piloting has enabled us to understand the complexities of the implementation process, develop solutions for bottlenecks and logistical challenges, deepen our understanding of the market structure and frictions, and adjust our study protocol based on what we have learned. For example, a key lesson learned from the piloting was that there is critical information asymmetry in the market for RO equipment because plant owners lack the technical knowledge to assess the quality and suitability of RO system components, making them reliant on vendors. Since RO systems must be customized to local raw water quality, vendors can exploit this gap by supplying cheaper, poorly matched systems that reduce longevity and performance while maximizing short-term competitiveness. We adjusted the scope of work of the BRAC technical expert and introduced extended warranty conditions in the contract to alleviate the adverse market outcomes from this information asymmetry. Furthermore, to cost-effectively conduct a large number of water-sample testing, we established a partnership with a lab of a local engineering university.
We are now well positioned to launch the full-scale evaluation of the water-entrepreneurship program in the second week of June 2025. We will conduct our baseline surveys of the potential entrepreneurs in October 2025, and the baseline survey of the households by January 2026. We plan to install the RO plants in the treatment communities by February 2026 so that the communities can buy water during the peak water scarcity between March to June. We will conduct monthly followup surveys with the entrepreneurs and a midline followup survey of the households on water access and blood-pressure measurements between April to May 2026. This will give us some preliminary results on the effectiveness of the program and allow us to identify bottlenecks and do course correction. Finally, we will conduct our endline follow up survey between April to May 2027.
Foundational/internal modeling
In terms of integrating with foundational modeling, we have been working closely with Dr. Choi to develop and estimate the water-security model. We have provided a large amount of both primary and secondary data to facilitate the model estimation. We are also working closely with Md Jakir Hossein to get observed and projected levels of groundwater salinity data that would guide us about targeting and external validity of the water-entrepreneurship program.